The Entire Northern Hemisphere Can Be Controlled From the Space Above the Arctic

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On the third and last day of the Arctic Circle Assembly, 2024, in Reykjavik, Iceland, technology and the Arctic were on the agenda.

A session titled “Adapting Arctic Research: Responding to Geopolitical and Tech Shifts” brought together a panel of experts to discuss how cutting-edge technologies like satellite imaging and artificial intelligence are reshaping Arctic research in the face of geopolitical challenges. 

Researcher Tim Reilly from the Scott Polar Research Institute at the University of Cambridge at the Arctic Circle Assembly 2024. (Photo: Birgitte Martinussen)

Institute Associate Dr. Tim Reilly from the Scott Polar Research Institute at the University of Cambridge argued that the governance of the Arctic will be influenced from space in the future.

“There is an assumption that governance in the 21st century over the Arctic is terrestrial-based – NATO, the Arctic Council, and those sorts of organizations. My view is that the existential risk in the Arctic is going to be increasing governance from space, and the key enabler of that will be AI,” he stated during the session.

In a comment to High North News, Reilly emphasized, “If one can position oneself in space above the Arctic, one can influence two Oceans and three continents –  the entire Northern Hemisphere.”

He believes this partly explains why Russia, the US, and China are intensifying their presence in the Arctic region from space. 

“With the advent of social media, Internet of Things, Big Data, AI, Machine Learning, Robotics, etc, the ability to influence governance, for instance, over the younger, techno-dominated generation in particular, in and over the Arctic from largely unregulated space via Polar-orbiting satellites is a temptation for all nations,” he adds.

He says this may in time apply to similar types of governance across the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Recent events in Brazil illustrate Reilly’s concerns, with Elon Musk and X having a significant impact on the country’s political climate.

China and data

Reilly also illuminated the importance of climate research/monitoring from space in the Arctic and which actors are gathering crucial data.

China’s research ambitions in the Arctic, including the Svalbard Yellow River Station and the China-Iceland Arctic Science Observatory, provide the country with access from space over the region for scientific reasons, such as climate monitoring. 

The US’ Arctic strategy of 2022 stated that, over the last decade, China had “expanded its scientific activities; and used these scientific engagements to conduct dual-use research with intelligence or military applications in the Arctic.”